In the IACPM fourth-quarter Credit Outlook Survey, member firms predict improving credit spreads over the next three and 12 months and, in a shift in outlook versus the past two years, a lower default rate by the end of the year for all sectors except real estate. While generally positive, data suggest that members remain focused on potential economic and market vulnerabilities amid early indicators of recovery. "It's a clear indication from this group of people who are acting on their beliefs. They believe default rates have turned," said Som-lok Leung, executive director at the IACPM.

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