Ernest H. Preeg, Ph.D., senior adviser for international trade and finance
Second quarter trade figures offer a hopeful sign that the soaring Chinese trade surplus in manufactures over the past several years, created largely at the expense of a rising U.S. deficit, has reached a turning point. U.S. exports of manufactures were flat in the first quarter of 2013 compared with 2012, and grew by only 2% in the second quarter. Chinese export growth, in contrast, plunged from a very high 19% to a lowly 3%. A more definitive appraisal of whether this is a turning point, however, requires more data. Policy Analysis

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